ASSESSING THE KARAKORAM ANOMALY AND ITS IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY IN PAKISTAN

Abstract

The Karakoram Anomaly refers to the phenomenon where many glaciers in Pakistan’s Karakoram Range have remained stable or even advanced over recent decades, in contrast to the global trend of glacier retreat driven by climate change. This study examines the climatic, topographic, and glaciological factors influencing Pakistan’s water resources. Employing a qualitative, integrative methodology, the research combines literature review, analysis of climate and hydrological data, remote sensing imagery, and field observations conducted in Gilgit-Baltistan during 2022–2023. Findings indicate that enhanced winter precipitation from westerly disturbances, stable to cooler summer temperatures, extensive debris cover, and high-altitude microclimatic protection contribute positively to glacier mass balance. Analysis of river discharge records, complemented by stakeholder interviews, demonstrates that the Karakoram Anomaly underpins consistent water flows into the Indus Basin, supporting irrigation, hydropower, and domestic water supply. However, this stability is fragile: slight increases in temperature or precipitation could accelerate melt, alter river regimes, and heighten the risk of floods or water shortages during dry seasons. The study highlights the region’s climate-buffering capacities and associated climate-change vulnerabilities, emphasizing the need for enhanced glacier monitoring, adaptive water management, and integrated resilience planning to safeguard Pakistan’s water security.